Australia guide · Grant rate · 4 min read
Australia student visa success rate for Nepali students, from the official data.
Home Affairs granted 64.1% of student visa decisions for Nepali primary applicants in FY 2025/26, down from 81.9% the year before. In July and August 2026 it was 28.4%. For higher education alone the year was 68.2%; for vocational courses, 37.9%; for files lodged from outside Australia, 52.4%. These are official figures from the BP0015 data file, not a consultancy's claim.
The short version
- Official grant rate for Nepal: 64.1% in FY 2025/26, 28.4% in July and August 2026. All countries: 78.8% and 71.2%.
- Sector matters most: university courses 68.2%, vocational courses 37.9%, research degrees 86.5% (FY 2025/26).
- Files lodged from outside Australia were granted 52.4% of the time; from inside, 79.7%. Most Nepali first-time applicants are outside.
- A consultancy's own rate is only meaningful next to these numbers, with its lodged and refused counts. Ours for Australia: 87.6% of 842 files in FY 2025/26.
Official data
Australian Student visa grant rate for Nepali applicants, by financial year
Nepal, month by month: the last 14 months
Coral bars: months when fewer than half of Nepali applicants were granted.
See the numbers
| Period | Nepal grant rate | All countries | Decisions |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16–17 | 83.8% | 92.1% | 13,669 granted, 2,641 refused |
| 17–18 | 84.1% | 91.0% | 19,941 granted, 3,756 refused |
| 18–19 | 77.8% | 90.2% | 23,648 granted, 6,731 refused |
| 19–20 | 87.0% | 92.4% | 17,537 granted, 2,614 refused |
| 20–21 | 95.8% | 95.7% | 15,164 granted, 668 refused |
| 21–22 | 88.3% | 91.9% | 25,643 granted, 3,404 refused |
| 22–23 | 67.9% | 85.7% | 32,758 granted, 15,456 refused |
| 23–24 | 65.6% | 80.2% | 14,756 granted, 7,730 refused |
| 24–25 | 81.9% | 83.2% | 24,424 granted, 5,405 refused |
| 25–26 | 64.1% | 78.8% | 22,892 granted, 12,826 refused |
| Jul 2025 | 89.9% | 3,014 granted, 339 refused | |
| Aug 2025 | 86.7% | 2,298 granted, 353 refused | |
| Sep 2025 | 80.3% | 2,991 granted, 734 refused | |
| Oct 2025 | 78.0% | 3,166 granted, 893 refused | |
| Nov 2025 | 65.1% | 1,988 granted, 1,065 refused | |
| Dec 2025 | 69.6% | 1,147 granted, 502 refused | |
| Jan 2026 | 50.3% | 1,547 granted, 1,526 refused | |
| Feb 2026 | 47.5% | 1,882 granted, 2,081 refused | |
| Mar 2026 | 40.2% | 1,675 granted, 2,495 refused | |
| Apr 2026 | 66.2% | 1,231 granted, 628 refused | |
| May 2026 | 57.1% | 1,235 granted, 926 refused | |
| Jun 2026 | 35.9% | 718 granted, 1,284 refused | |
| Jul 2026 | 25.3% | 596 granted, 1,758 refused | |
| Aug 2026 | 33.3% | 484 granted, 970 refused |
The number every consultancy quotes, and almost none shows
Search “Australia visa success rate Nepal” and you’ll find percentages with no counts, no dates and no source. Here’s the official one, worked out from the government’s own file so you can check every figure.
| Period | Nepal granted | Nepal refused | Nepal grant rate | All countries |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY 2023/24 | 14,756 | 7,730 | 65.6% | 80.2% |
| FY 2024/25 | 24,424 | 5,405 | 81.9% | 83.2% |
| FY 2025/26 | 22,892 | 12,826 | 64.1% | 78.8% |
| July and August 2026 | 1,080 | 2,728 | 28.4% | 71.2% |
Primary applicants only. Grant rate = granted ÷ (granted + refused). Withdrawn applications aren’t counted.
Two things stand out. Nepal’s rate was close to the world average in FY 2024/25. And from January 2026 it fell month after month, which is when several sources report Nepal moved to Evidence Level 3.
The same year, split by sector
The headline rate hides the most useful fact: what you apply to study changes your odds more than anything else.
| Sector, FY 2025/26 | Nepal grant rate | All countries |
|---|---|---|
| Postgraduate research (research master’s, PhD) | 86.5% | 95.6% |
| Higher education (bachelor’s, coursework master’s) | 68.2% | 84.0% |
| Vocational education and training | 37.9% | 52.2% |
| Independent English courses (ELICOS) | 48.3% | 78.8% |
Vocational courses are where most Nepali refusals sit: 3,419 of 12,826 in FY 2025/26. If you’ve been told a cheap diploma is “the easy visa”, the data says the opposite.
Inside or outside Australia
| Where the applicant was, FY 2025/26 | Granted | Refused | Grant rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Outside Australia (most first-time applicants from Nepal) | 10,707 | 9,727 | 52.4% |
| Inside Australia (mostly students extending or changing course) | 12,185 | 3,099 | 79.7% |
If you’re applying from Kathmandu for the first time, the 52.4% is your comparison, not the 64.1%. And from 2 October 2026 most onshore applications are no longer allowed, so the inside number will look different next year.
How to read a consultancy’s own “success rate”
Every consultancy in Kathmandu has a number on its wall. Here’s how to test one in two minutes.
- Ask for the counts. Files lodged, approved and refused, for one country, for one year. “98% success” with no counts is a slogan.
- Ask what counts as a file. Some only count files that were approved, or leave out withdrawn ones that were heading for refusal.
- Ask for the refusal reasons. A consultancy that tracks its refusals knows them by cause. One that doesn’t can’t fix them.
- Compare to the official rate. A real rate well above 52.4% for first-time offshore Nepali files in this period usually means the consultancy is saying “not yet” to weak files, not that it has a secret.
Ours, so you can do the same test on us: in FY 2025/26 we lodged 842 Australia files; 738 were approved and 104 refused: 87.6%. Our refusals by cause, across all 10 countries, are on our About page. Sample figures for this demo site.
Why our number is higher. Not because we have a contact in Canberra. Last year we told 612 of 3,140 students not to apply yet (19.5%), most often because the money couldn’t be shown honestly. The files we didn’t lodge are the ones that would have been refused.
What actually moves your odds
Home Affairs doesn’t publish refusal reasons by country. Our own refusals do show a pattern, and it’s the same one every counsellor in Kathmandu sees.
| Refusal cause, all our files, FY 2025/26 | Refusals | What fixes it |
|---|---|---|
| Financial evidence | 79 | Money held over months with a documented source; tax-cleared income; loans with their collateral |
| Genuine-student assessment | 61 | Answers that connect your past, this course and your plan, in your own words |
| Course choice gap | 31 | A course that follows from your +2, degree or work |
| Documents | 14 | A checklist, and a second person reading it |
| Other | 9 |
40.7% of our refusals were about money. Almost none were about English.
A refusal fixed, not repeated
Sushmita Gurung from Pokhara had a Bachelor of Nursing offer in Adelaide and two refusals through another consultancy, both on financial evidence. Her father’s hardware shop income showed in the bank but not in any tax record.
We didn’t change her course or university. We rebuilt the money story: three years of tax-cleared income, a CA’s income source report, the shop’s PAN registration and a one-page sponsor letter. Lodged on 2 March, approved on 25 March. Of 143 students refused elsewhere who re-filed with us last year, 118 were approved (82.5%).
Read what to do after an Australian visa refusal before you lodge again.
How we pull these numbers
We download BP0015 from data.gov.au each month, read the Nepal rows for primary applicants, and work out the rates in code, so nothing is typed by hand. The file used here was locked at 31 August 2026 and read on 20 October 2026. When the next file is published, this page and its chart update with it.
